Population Shifts Reshaping Texas: Where People Are Moving and Why It Matters

Population movement is perhaps the most reliable leading indicator of real estate demand. At PlaceMKR, we closely track migration patterns both into and within Texas to identify emerging investment opportunities before they become apparent to the broader market.

Texas Migration: The Big Picture

Texas continues to lead the nation in population growth, adding over 400,000 new residents in 2024 alone. This growth is driven by both domestic migration (primarily from California, Illinois, New York, and Florida) and international immigration.

However, the real insight isn't simply that Texas is growing – it's understanding precisely where this growth is occurring and why. The patterns reveal clear opportunities for strategic real estate investment.

The Shifting Geography of Growth

While Texas' major metros continue to expand, the most accelerated growth is occurring in:

1. Suburban rings: Communities 20-45 minutes outside major employment centers

2. Connector corridors: Areas between major metros, particularly along I-35

3. Satellite cities: Smaller cities within 60-90 minutes of major employment hubs

Our analysis shows that median home prices in these areas have appreciated 15-25% faster than urban cores over the past 24 months, yet commercial real estate values often lag behind this residential growth signal – creating compelling investment opportunities.

Following the Employers

Corporate relocations continue to drive population movement throughout Texas. Since 2020, over 300 companies have relocated or significantly expanded operations in Texas, bringing with them both direct jobs and support services.

These relocations have created ripple effects in surrounding communities, with particularly strong growth in:

• The Austin-San Antonio corridor

• Northern suburbs of Dallas

• Areas northwest of Houston

• Select submarkets near major technology campuses

The Demographic Dimension

Beyond just tracking raw population numbers, we analyze demographic shifts within this migration. Key trends include:

• Increased migration of high-income technology and financial services professionals
• Growth in remote workers seeking housing affordability with urban amenities
• Rising numbers of early retirees drawn to Texas' tax advantages
• Young families prioritizing housing affordability and quality schools

These demographic patterns help us identify which property types and amenities will see increasing demand in specific submarkets.

From Data to Investment Strategy

Our population analysis directly informs our investment strategy in several ways:

1. Early identification: We track building permits and school enrollment data to identify growth nodes before they appear in official population statistics ‍
2. Strategic land banking: Acquiring land in the path of population movement ‍
3. Asset class selection: Matching development plans to the demographic profile of incoming residents ‍
4. Timing optimization: Aligning development timelines with population growth forecasts

Case Study: New Braunfels

Our investment in New Braunfels exemplifies our population-driven approach. By identifying the accelerating growth between Austin and San Antonio, we secured strategic land positions that are now benefiting from population inflow from both metro areas.

By understanding not just that Texas is growing, but precisely where and why people are moving, we continue to position our portfolio to capitalize on the state's dynamic population trends.